Pennsylvania Eve

Not that I think the race between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton is a particularly significant one. Getting into politics could end this blog before it even begins; but, it is hard to ignore the donkeys' constant stream of poll numbers and new ideas about what kind of Democratic schism "Satan herself" (Mrs Clinton) is going to bring about.

Are either of them even worth a split? In policy or ideology they are not so different, you are comparing a rhetorical populist with a pragmatic one. And then it becomes about personality: the MTV generation has declared a winner (albeit unsurprisingly) in Mr Obama in a recent poll. Not that either choice would particularly speak to the strong points of the American universe (have presidential elections ever?), but some kind of catch is luring both to an ear-punching protectionist shrill. I have a hard time seeing what a divided D party would have to argue about.

The mess over CFTA, exacerbated by the House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, is only the tip of the iceberg. With Mrs Clinton we also get Mr Clinton's influence to mitigate the disaster. Spheres of influence may be a dated doctrine, but is Mrs Pelosi really under the impression that a Congress can afford to disenchant the Colombian administration (and perhaps, more importantly, its populace) over something so straightforward in the first place? I don't dare suppose that Mrs Clinton nor Mr Obama would prefer a cozy relationship with Hugo Chavez, instead.

Pennsylvania's primary tomorrow is going to have less to do with personality and everything to do with jobs moving south of the border, and the mortgage crunch (hence Mrs Clinton's apparent lead). If either she or Mr Obama can package and sell the protectionist gusto they are offering Pennsylvania to the rest of the country, we may be in for a starkly different direction, after all.