Friday, May 2, 2008

Wright or wrong

It is too late for Barack Obama to reverse the "Wright damage." But the GOP should not expect a lot of mileage out of it, either. With Mr Obama's second public disavowal of Jeremiah Wright and his remarks comes some relief among his supporters, but not much outside of his ranks. A Rasmussen poll found that 58% of voters believed Mr Obama made his second, more decisive speech out of political convenience rather than personal outrage. He will have to drive a hard effort to convince them otherwise.

The hot, bright lights on Messrs Wright and Obama underscore a character interest in this election unique from the ones before it. Maybe it is because, at least in the Democratic party, the platforms are so similar. Maybe it is scrutiny and pullback over race and gender that voters thought they could swallow. Whatever the reasons, Mr Wright has already discredited himself, the question is: how low has he dragged Mr Obama, and if Mr Obama is capable of putting an end to it.

The answers are unclear. Statistics show Mr Obama took a marginal hit in national polls. But he may have missed a golden opportunity to bring the devoutly religious back into his fold. The lynchpin was his first, "soft" renunciation not of Mr Wright but of Mr Wright's remarks. He was ambiguous about his standing with Mr Wright and instead oddly compared his situation to throwing his racist grandmother under the bus. Conservatives were predictably skeptical of Mr Obama's sincerity, while liberals already likely to vote for Mr Obama were generally inspired.

After Mr Wright reiterated his comments on Tuesday (it seems that the hot, bright lights are exactly where Mr Wright wants them), Mr Obama made a second, more explicit condemnation of the remarks and the man. He finally made a decisive move in damage control, but it would have been exponentially more effective the first time around. It is yet to be seen whether he can stop further fallout from Mr Wright's continued public remarks, but it would be wise of him to reach out to the more conservative, devout corners of his party (and even the Republicans).

Mr Obama has had to play up his membership at Trinity United to counter early (and lingering) claims that he is a Muslim. There is not a better time for him to make even clearer his disappointment in the bully pulpit of Mr Wright and the need for reverence in his Christian church. Even if he fails to make this connection with the moderate, conservative, and skeptical religious, the GOP will have a hard time extracting more usable fuel from Mr Wright.

With the 18-month election cycle that we are now seeing, it would be nearly impossible to captivate public attention on an associative relationship that, in reality, does not have a lot of meat to it. There are to date no photographs, videos or records placing Mr Obama in the church at the time of one of the questionable sermons; the argument is based on the idea that Mr Wright's political ideas may (and probably) have rubbed off on Mr Obama during the decades of their friendship. Had this came to light in October, it would be an entirely different story.

There is little doubt that this time that Mr Obama will be his party's nominee for President. There is, however, skepticism about his judgment and sincerity. It will be quick, decisive action in the future that will regain him the trust of the voters.

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